The below is a work of fiction based on an actual event...
Losing
a 777 commercial airliner carrying 250 people is a great story. Add further details, that the plane’s
navigation system was reprogrammed to head in the opposite direction from its
scheduled route, that the co-pilot signaled good night and all was well after
that change took place, that the systems meant to signal where the plane was
were turned off, and we get quite a mystery.
And the plane is still missing after a week.
We
also know some sinister realities. The
plane likely reached 45,000 feet, higher than the 777 safe flying range and an
altitude likely to kill passengers. The
pilot was a member of Malaysia’s opposition party and had been at the trial the
previous day when their leader was sentenced, many believe unjustly, to
prison. The pilot had a flight simulator
in his house. He and the co-pilot were
Muslims. Not that all Muslims are
terrorists but Al Qaeda is a Muslim terrorist group that likes to target
airplanes and a high level Al Qaeda terrorist, currently in custody, has
claimed credit for the attack. And that
two Iranians were flying on stolen passports and with tickets purchased with
cash by a shadowy Mr. Ali (who has since disappeared in Iran) in corrupt
Pattaya, Thailand.
Theories
abound. The plane escaped radar
detection by tailing a Singapore Airlines plane. There was a catastrophic event on the plane
and the pilots lost their ability to function.
One of the pilots used it to commit suicide. It was shot down by another country’s
military as it strayed into their airspace.
It was hijacked. Many of these
theories can both be supported and debunked.
Why no distress call? Why fly in
the wrong direction for hours? Why no
demands from whomever did it? And most
of all, why aren’t the governments involved, especially the Malaysian
government, more forthcoming with information and more willing to share?
So
let’s look at this problem differently. Instead
of listening to those in the aviation industry, who want to comfort us, or the
journalists, who are honor bound to follow all leads, let’s look at it from the
point of a novelist.
And, to provide
some context, I’ve written two novels about terrorists in which one perspective
in the story is a terrorist’s. Thus,
I’ve tried to plan plots from that point of view. Captive
came out a few years ago and has been downloaded over 600,000 times. Escape,
its sequel, will be out in a few months.
Terror strikes are unpredictable but they do follow patterns. Anyone planning a big strike is a risk taker,
visionary and able to see beyond the obvious.
They also do painstaking research, as this missing plane clearly demonstrates.
First,
I wish I’d written this story but no one would have believed it. Indeed, it’s utter genius…making a large
commercial plane disappear. The planning
is staggering and the plot was executed seamlessly, including little details
like turning off tracking when crossing from Malaysian to Vietnamese
waters. And knowing that Malaysian
authorities wouldn’t be on their toes when it happened (but to defend them for
a minute, such events just don’t happen so this really was totally implausible
to those monitoring the plane). But while
I didn’t write it I can imagine a possible story line.
So
what can we surmise?
At
the most basic level someone wanted a plane and they still have it. They most likely don’t care about the
passengers’ lives…no one who hijacks a plane has passenger safety as a main
goal. And by flying at an altitude that
would likely kill those without facemasks the perpetrators probably solved the
problem of 250 angry passengers. By
flying at 5,000 feet did they perhaps parachute out and achieve one possible
end – that of embarrassing the Malaysian government? Perhaps.
I
doubt it.
Someone
was flying the plane, unless we believe it was on autopilot. Anyone who agrees to hijack a commercial
plane isn’t thinking about their own personal safety. No, they are on a larger mission. One or both pilots? Seemingly, for a number of reasons it’s
likely that one or both was involved, willingly or not.
Did
the fact that they were Muslim matter?
Absolutely! It doesn’t
automatically label them as terrorists but it might make them more receptive to
help, either willingly or by being coerced.
I love the detail that the co-pilot was recently disciplined for letting
two women into the cockpit. Now that
sort of tip…that perhaps the co-pilot was lax and not guilty…is something only
a skilled writer would add.
Inherent
in any such plans is the reality that things go wrong, even in the best-laid
plots, and the plane could have crashed regardless of intent. But I’d want the plane if I were writing this
story. Thus my goal wouldn’t be to fly
off course for seven hours only to nose dive into the Indian Ocean. And if the pilots were somehow involved they
might be able to land that plane.
So
how do you land it? That’s actually
easier than you think. Yes, those
countries with rogue populations (of terrorists or the like; Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Iran) are also very heavily covered by military radar. Landing unspotted would be tough. Sure, one military unit could have shot the
plane down. But would there not have
been some sort of communication first?
Would they hide it? Given what
happened on 9/11, that our military was getting the okay to shoot down a hijacked
commercial plane, doing so isn’t the end of the world.
Well,
we just found out that Thai military radar tracked an object that could have
been the plane (that day) and only just told Malaysia now! Turns out they weren’t asked for that
specific information. So, seemingly, to
get information questions will need to be phrased “did you shoot down this
specific flight at this specific time and location on this actual date.” I still don’t think the plane was shot down by
any country’s military.
Let
me tell you how I would write this story.
The plane is being flown somewhere and heads into Thai airspace. Thailand is a somewhat orderly country but its
northern most region is part of the Golden Triangle, a lawless crossing of
Burma, Laos and Thailand through which many things are smuggled. I’d head the plane to Laos. With enough planning, and this plot took a
while to put in place for such breathtaking execution to occur, an airfield
could have been built. Laos is mostly
jungle with a repressive government, basically no press and little
communication (or education). The Laotians
probably don’t know a plane is missing; most haven’t seen planes before and
wouldn’t have anyone to report such a citing to anyway. The country is rife with corruption and dirt
poor. Bribing someone there would take
little. For $20 people could be hired to
cover the plane with brush.
And
Laos is but one example, by the way.
There are other rural areas in the region with few communications
ability, virtually no literacy and room for a runway. They would have been
landing early morning and mostly in the light in Laos.
While
we think the plane flew for about 7 hours, even after no longer being tracked
in detail, the signals indicating such seemingly came at about one hour
intervals. With the plane on the ground,
I’d remove that tracking device and put it on a car or, better, a boat. No one was looking for a boat then (they
weren’t even looking for the plane a few hours in as dawn was breaking). If the perpetrators knew how to disable so
many tracking systems and hijack a plane they could probably handle the
technological details of this option.
I’d
keep that boat going for a while then drop the tracking device in the ocean or
bury it. I’d also bury the dead
passengers.
Now
I have a plane. Which still has some fuel
and can sit for a while. Now, I’d use it
to make a really big statement. Every
time someone tells me that my theories, or books, are crazy, I point out that
the people who did this act are not so bothered by such distinctions. They know they don’t need to succeed.
Terror
isn’t about succeeding at any specific act it’s about doing what has happened
here…striking fear in people’s hearts.
Making them question what they thought was safe. Sure, planes crash but they don’t
disappear. This plot is an A already;
use the plane or even get it off the ground again and it gets an A+.
No,
they don’t need a plane to detonate a nuclear explosion. But would a military shoot it down over their
own country if warned that it was carrying such? We all know, or can find out, that many
nuclear “bombs” are missing since the cold war and the smaller ones can fit in
a suitcase. Why not put one on the
airplane and fly it to…wherever…?
And
I’d let the speculation about the flight continue until I was ready. Providing any information beforehand only
helps authorities find me and figure out my further plans. How far can a gassed up 777 go?
And
the Chinese? They have their own
problems with Muslim dissenters and non-Muslim ones too. And I’m not blaming this plane jacking on
Muslims…I’m only raising the issue because the pilots were Muslim and a high
ranking Al Qaeda operative has claimed his organization is behind it. I think this plane grab was an opportunistic
one and not meant to target China at all.
These organizers were non-state, despite the sophistication of the
plot. Most nation-states wouldn’t risk a
plane grab and definitely don’t want to make China super angry for little benefit. I could be wrong on this point but if someone
wanted to target China there are much better ways (for example on Chinese
soil).
So,
given where we are now and what information we have, that’s how I would write
the story. My backup plots are an
assassination of someone important on the plane and a zombie takeover. But this mystery story as it stands is
perfect. My heart goes out to the
passengers, crew and families who are learning the hard way that fact is stranger
than fiction and has a bigger real world impact.
No comments:
Post a Comment