Sunday, September 5, 2010



October 4 is the official release date of Captive. We are doing reverse “windowing” with it being available on Kindle/digital first, hard copy to follow. A dear friend has offered to host a book party (details to follow…though perhaps not online).

The idea of monetization, an issue which I face as part of my other life, my job, came up repeatedly last week.

I was talking to a friend of mine from a large studio here in Los Angeles. She questioned why I was spending any time marketing and distributing Captive. She questioned why I wrote. All of it was so hard to monetize – as I didn’t have a large marketing budget or wide distribution. At an earlier meeting that day a prominent local blogger – who’d written a book as well – thought that pursuing the marketing and promotion was very worthwhile in our increasingly fragmented world. Do we create only to monetize? Does quality play into monetizing and what is quality? Interestingly, neither party had read Captive.

Today in the New York Times book review I read the numbers for the top selling authors (though I’d seen them before). Last year (year ended June 1), James Patterson earned $70 million. Stephanie Meyer was at $40 million; Stephen King was at $34 million: Danielle Steel was at $32 million. Not in that article but listed next elsewhere was JK Rowling – who did not release a book last year.

But does anyone seriously write a book just to make money? Perhaps those on the list above…since they know that if they release a book it will sell (lots). Cervantes, a favorite of mine and the writer of a “classic” spent serious time in debtors’ prison. Dickens wrote his books in installments so that he could pay his bills.

No, the writing part is long and requires tremendous discipline. I went through seven plus drafts of Captive and can’t bear to look at it anymore. The time involved is beyond explaining because not only do you write and revise but you also research (ponder, and obsess). Something like 70% percent of books don’t make back their advances (which typically aren’t high).

I write because I have something to say, and will keep writing as long as I do. Captive I wrote straight through and not chronologically. I just saw the book in my mind and it wrote itself. Today I re-wrote the beginning of the sequel because a thought led me to take the characters someplace new.

That is why I write, and not because James Patterson can earn $70 million in a year (though I commend and admire him for doing so – all those people read his book – what an accomplishment!).

Thursday, September 2, 2010

The lights are starting to go out (a rare post topic)


The Lights Are Starting To Go Out

48 states are projected to have budget deficits this year. Countless municipalities (with more limited taxing power) are in worse shape and we’ve already seen the first bankruptcies in cities such as Vallejo, California. Harrisberg, PA passed a budget that didn’t include debt payments (effectively a default). Central Falls, RI has turned its finances over to a receiver. In all, about $2.8 trillion in municipal debt is outstanding ($1 trillion directly held by households; the effective number is much higher). Municipal debt is that which is issued by cities or other local governments and their agencies.
Ben Bernanke recently stated that the Fed will aim to keep interest rates low for the near term, citing the “sluggishness of the national recovery” and the resulting budget woes at the state and local government (a “significant” or “severe” threat to the economic recovery, as per an AP Economic Survey). High and lingering unemployment, decreased consumer spending and corporations remaining conservative due to economic uncertainty are keeping tax revenues low.
Experts have estimated that the states face $350 billion in deficits over 2010 and 2011. While President Obama has pledged $140 billion in aid over a 2.5 year period that sum doesn’t come close to narrowing the projected gaps. If interest rates don’t stay low, some of that debt will most likely need to be rolled over at higher rates of interest – pushing up the projected deficit numbers. At the federal level, the average maturity of US government debt is currently about three years; meaning that rising interest rates will greatly increase the federal government’s own obligations, making it harder for them to bail out state and local governments.
The municipal market is also quite illiquid – so the ability to find bid/ask prices will freeze should there be a rash of defaults. Much as we learned during the recent financial crisis an illiquid market can close almost completely, leading institutions to liquidate higher quality assets to meet obligations (such as margin requirements, loan covenants, reserve requirements or redemptions).
Add to the municipal debt burden unstated debts – such as shortfalls in state and local pension funds – and the municipal burden only increases. Joshua Pauh (Northwestern University) and Robert Novy-Marx (University of Chicago) recently recalculated the 50 states pension plans by valuing the obligations as the bond market values debt. They arrived at a $5.17 trillion number. As only$1.94 trillion has been set aside in state pension funds the resulting deficit is $3.23 trillion.
In the news media we read about the battle for teachers’ jobs, the post office stopping Saturday delivery and four day weeks at schools and governmental agencies. What are we actually seeing?
Hawaii has gone to a four day school week. Illinois announced earlier in the year that it was $9 billion behind in payments to its vendors. Clayton County, GA has cut bus lines. Colorado Springs, CO cut a third of its streetlights this past winter. Schools across New Jersey are cutting language classes and using online programs instead. The Pentagon has announced that it’s cutting thousands of jobs. Each day we read about one more cut or threatened program. Can we really fund such large projected deficits by closing parks or limiting library hours?
This country needs its elected officials to organize a comprehensive approach instead of trying to nickel and dime their way out of a crisis. The cuts need to be felt across the board – including among the unionized and government workers – regardless of fears related to how these vested special interest groups retaliate in future elections.
Otherwise, which career politician will volunteer to turn the last light off?

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Dalai Lama quote for Sunday and sunflowers


All major religious traditions carry basically the same message, that is love, compassion and forgiveness the important thing is they should be part of our daily lives. Dalai Lama

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Musing before Captive's release

The beach on another morning when you could see it.

Yesterday morning I started my day with a run on the beach near my house. The morning was misty and indeed I couldn’t see very far in front of me. Santa Monica pier was hidden, as were the twists and turns of the bike path, its inhabitants and even the ocean itself.

The effect was glorious. Private, intimate and soothing. I had a lot to think about and that’s what my runs are for. I can escape the busy day for a minute and just focus on working through the issues I’m confronting.

I did think about Captive and its forthcoming release. I’ve never released a book before so every step is a new one: approving the final proof, deciding on a cover, putting up a website and Facebook page and getting back to writing a blog that I started years ago and dropped.

I’m a huge believer in incremental steps. Had I written a short piece once a week on this blog I would have a substantial body of work by now. I didn’t. The time invested wouldn’t have made a difference to my life – or so I think now. And privacy? How much of my life do I want online? How much of my life is exposed by the mere act of writing and publishing a book (a lot!).

Everything we write reveals something of who we are. Even the topics we choose. I wrote Captive because I feel passionately about the topic. Religions don’t kill people; people kill people. And someone needs to comment; fiction is more accessible because it weaves information and insight into narrative.

Someone commented that the book was targeted at an ultra-conservative audience. No! They obviously hadn’t read very far (and they’re the first person to see a draft and make such a statement). What will a broader audience think? We’ll see if I’m fortunate enough to find out.


Part of my summer vacation 2010

Invited to a party in Monaco by friends
I decided to go.
I can't always just hop on a plane and fly to Europe on a whim (work, kids, money, other obligations...). This time I did.
Sun drenched and breathtaking the locale (and people I met) couldn't have been more wonderful.
A big kiss to all of those who were there with me.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

How Marc Benioff sold me a book through free...

The article below - offered free- persuaded me to buy his book...which I had no intention of buying. I'll write a review after I finish it.

The Facebook Imperative Cannot Be Stopped

Posted: 10 Mar 2010 07:35 AM PST

Editor’s note: This guest post is written by Marc Benioff, chairman and CEO of salesforce.com. In it, he responds to critics of his last guest post arguing that enterprise software should be more like Facebook.

Two weeks ago on TechCrunch I posted “The Facebook Imperative,” which posed a simple question, “Why isn’t all enterprise software like Facebook?” It was the next iteration of the question I asked in 1999 that spawned salesforce.com, “Why isn’t all enterprise software like Amazon.com.” If you have read my book, Behind The Cloud, you are well aware how that one question launched a company, and a movement. Its been an exciting decade. But the real excitement is just starting.

Frankly, I’ve been amazed by the huge amount of responses, tweets, and comments (aka “the ruckus across the blogoshere,” as Joe McKendrick calls it). It only strengthens my conviction that we are about to see the greatest revolution in enterprise software, ever. Well, really, the most exciting revolution in computing, ever. It will create more value for users, customers, and vendors by an order of magnitude over what we saw in the last wave. And, it’s really starting to happen right now. It is realtime. It is social. It is mobile. And, it is about time. Literally, it is about productivity.

I’m energized by the excitement I see for a new generation of collaboration software in the enterprise to replace antiquated Microsoft Sharepoint servers and IBM’s Lotus Notes. I’ve enjoyed seeing my observation—that Lotus Notes was conceived before Mark Zuckerberg—reverberate around the web. But, the reality is the Facebook Imperative contained more than a funny line. It hit a nerve. We are all responding—debating—a question that is an imperative because we all need to take software to a new level, and now is the time. Microsoft and IBM have maintained the status quo on enterprise collaboration software too long, and it’s time for a change.

There are an overwhelming number of you who agree that its time to transform the business conversation the same way Facebook has changed the consumer conversation. We are betting salesforce.com’s future on it. Approximately 40% of companies are already deploying or planning to deploy a social computing platform, a number that’s expected to rise, says Irwin Lazar of Nemeretes Research. Not everyone agrees, mostly the vendors that are milking their cash cows. But, make no mistake about it, this generation of social platforms is very different than the last.

Charles Zedlewski emerged from a long blogging hiatus to argue that Facebook is designed for entertainment—not productivity. Well, that’s not surprising given that he works for SAP, one of the companies I have previously referred to as “innovationless”—in my view they remain the Anti-Cloud. Their actions speak for themselves. Still, I’m astounded that more enterprises haven’t figured out how to tap into the real collaborative power of Facebook and Twitter, and the new social models that they have pioneered.

I consider Facebook and Twitter—and the ability to tap into my network of friends and followers—one the most productive ways I can start my day. Using these new Internet phenoms, I’ve tested new ad campaigns and elicited great customer responses, promoted my book to a large audience of people who cared, and with the help of my network, even named new products—all before I sat down for breakfast. I’m not alone; ask Vinnie Mirchandani for a sneak preview of his new book and read how Starbucks, Avon, and Pepsi are using these new social services to increase productivity in their enterprises. Or, look at how Causes, one of Facebook’s most popular apps, is having a fascinating impact on the future of philanthropy.

While my admiration for Facebook is no secret, the fact is that the Facebook Imperative—much like The Amazon Imperative of 1999—is just a metaphor. Like all metaphors, they are terrific catalysts to introduce an idea and orient people. They are rooted in inspiration, but they do not funnel down to the granular details. And, there are details that make this movement entirely new in practice. The power of this new model is to create the next level of productivity, collaboration, and learning in the enterprise. And, I see it happening now in our own company.

For years we’ve been reading about the potential for institutional memory to transform a corporation into a learning organization. But, have we seen it happen beyond very few unique organizations? A true paradigm shift occurs when the barriers of entry are removed for everyone. That is changing fast. With these new social models, there is a way to immediately leverage the knowledge of an organization. People with expertise and relevance are instantly looped in, can participate in the conversation, collaborate, and make contributions more simply than ever before. That will be the catalyst of this new productivity revolution—delivered through these new social enterprise platforms.

We have deployed Salesforce Chatter internally through our own beta program, and we are now using the social models proven by Facebook and Twitter to run our company. Our new social enterprise is built atop our existing business information and applications. It’s not partitioned off from other enterprise applications, but is an integrated part of it—offering a new view of the data that is more productive and easier to use. Through enterprise sharing models, filtering and discovery tools, users have full flexibility over which people and data they follow—allowing them to fully maximize the value of their own feeds and eliminating the risk of “pollutants” some critics fear.

I have learned more about my own company in the last three weeks using Salesforce Chatter than I have in the last three years. It reminds me of the time we went live with http://ideas.salesforce.com. The awareness I have today of what is happening with our employees, our customers, our products, our customer service escalations, and even the deals we are closing is spectacular. Social computing for the enterprise is about seeing what matters to your company, what is happening with your products, and among your people. It’s about the information you need to make decisions finding you. I’m amazed at the potential of this technology. There is just no way I can explain it to you in writing, so here is an actual screen shot that I took off my desktop to give you an idea of the flow (click to enlarge):

It is time to let go of the past and start to create a compelling future for the software industry. I’m energized by the skeptics. It’s familiar. They all eventually convert to what’s important to customers, or become increasingly irrelevant. You don’t have to look any farther than last week when Steve Ballmer spoke to the University of Washington telling them Microsoft was finally “All-In” the cloud. Well, that only took a decade or two. No more software plus services, now they are 100% cloud too. Sure.

I’m living in the post-PC revolution. I’m in a desktopless world that is about feeds and profiles running in all my browsers and mobile devices, and interacting in exciting new ways. It doesn’t matter if I am in the office, at home, or at Starbucks—I am productive wherever I am. The enterprise is not just going to the cloud, it’s now going social, and it’s going mobile. Facebook and Twitter have shown us the way. Like Microsoft, and IBM, not everyone has to get it yet, but eventually they all will. As they say: Shift happens.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

It's been awhile ....

Let's forget about the earlier posts....
Now my focus has shifted.
I'll be starting a fresh.
So, a great video:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuuTlQ0FzEU